The FOMC meeting today opens a two-day window into what could be one of the more closely watched decisions of the year. It’s not just about whether the Federal Reserve trims rates again — traders are looking for hints, tone shifts, and even subtle phrasing that might reveal how the central bank views inflation heading into 2026. And yes, the crypto market is paying very, very close attention.

Expectations of a quarter-point cut have already been baked into most models, though the Fed has surprised before. A slightly firmer stance, a softer remark, even a single unexpected projection in the dot plot could be enough to send markets wobbling for days.

Rate Cut Expectations Build Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Today

Current pricing suggests an 80%-plus probability that the Fed trims the target range by 25 basis points to roughly 3.50%–3.75%. If delivered, it would mark the third cut this year — not dramatic, but steady enough to keep risk assets hopeful.

Analysts say the real story may come from the updated Summary of Economic Projections. GDP forecasts near 2.1%, unemployment around 4.2%, and core inflation hovering just above 2.5% are expected, though nobody rules out small revisions. The dot plot, notoriously scrutinized by traders, might signal whether policymakers expect three or four rate cuts next year.

Jerome Powell’s press briefing tomorrow afternoon could add layers of interpretation. Some expect him to address the slowdown in quantitative tightening; others think he’ll focus on the Fed’s discomfort with sticky inflation pockets. Either way, markets will dissect every sentence, sometimes out of proportion.

Crypto Market Positions Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Today

Crypto traders are entering the week with cautious positioning, around US$1 billion in open interest sits vulnerable, depending on how hawkish or dovish the commentary turns out. It’s one of those weeks where even people who pretend not to track macro end up glued to the chart.
Bitcoin is holding a fairly narrow range between $90,500 and $91,500 — tight enough that a breakout could come quickly once the Fed speaks. Ethereum is floating near $3,100, though traders note thinning liquidity on both sides of the order book.

A cut paired with a clearly dovish forecast for 2026 could ignite a risk on-surge. Liquidity tends to flow into crypto faster than equities during these moments, and a move toward $92,000–$95,000 for Bitcoin wouldn’t shock analysts who’ve been tracking derivative positioning. Short-side liquidations around $120 million could easily snowball into fast, erratic candles.

But a more stubborn tone from the Fed would shift everything. If Powell signals hesitation — the so-called “hawkish cut” scenario — traders may unwind positions before markets get spooked. In that case, Bitcoin slipping into the $88,000–$89,000 zone becomes more likely, with Ethereum at risk of losing the $3,000 handle.

Despite the nerves, institutional accumulation is still showing up in on-chain and desk flow data retail traders. Meanwhile, seem unsure whether to wait out volatility or try catching a move early. It’s the same familiar split: patience versus the fear of missing the next run.

Why This Meeting Feels Different for Markets

Part of the heightened reaction stems from timing. Being the last meeting of 2025, whatever direction the Fed sets today effectively shapes the first quarter of next year. Investors are not only looking for a rate signal but also reassurance that the economic path remains predictable — or at least doesn’t veer into something surprising.

Global uncertainty has also crept into the narrative: shifting trade routes, uneven labor-market recovery, and pressure from election-driven policy debates. Combined, these factors amplify sensitivity around Fed commentary. A single unexpected datapoint can suddenly carry more weight than usual.

Equity traders, bond desks, commodity analysts — everyone has a stake in how today unfolds. But crypto markets often react the fastest and with the most noise, partly because of leverage, partly because sentiment in the sector changes on a dime.

Market Reactions to Watch as the FOMC Meeting Today Continues

Credit From: IG Bank

With the meeting underway and Powell scheduled to speak tomorrow, much of the market’s movement will hinge on subtle cues. A slightly softer projection or a firmer stance on inflation could prompt immediate volatility. Conversely, if the Fed stays close to expectations, traders may feel reassured enough to re-enter risk assets.

Crypto, in particular, doesn’t usually wait for confirmations, any hint of easier financial conditions tends to trigger rapid buying — even if traders later second-guess the move.

Whether this week becomes a breakout moment or a brief shakeout, the FOMC meeting today is poised to set the tone for how markets, especially crypto, navigate the final stretch of the year and the transition into 2026.